Speaker's bio
Katalin Julianna
Varga
(Hungarian National Bank)
Katalin Varga is an Economic Advisor at the Central Bank of Hungary and an Honorary Associate Professor at the Budapest University of Technology and Economics. Previously, she served as a Lead Financial Stability Expert at the European Central Bank and as a Senior Researcher at MSCI. Katalin has published extensively in leading journals covering econometrics, finance, and applied statistics. Her current research focuses on assessing macro-financial linkages and analysing the impact of global financial stress on economic growth.
The impacts of global uncertainty on growth
Geopolitical events impact volatilities of most assets, sectors, and countries. To this end measuring geopolitical risks has been of key interest in the literature as seen by the development of the COVOL index of Engle and Campos-Martins (2023). COVOL uses volatility innovations in multivariate equity index portfolios to quantify global risks. This study looks at how geopolitical risks influence the financial sector. In particular, we use the Diebold-Yilmaz approach to analyse how global uncertainty influences financial stress in the UK and Hungary. We also use a growth-at-risk framework to better understand what part of the growth distribution is impacted by global uncertainty. Finally, using stochastic differential equations we predict the global financial risk index on one month horizon and use machine learning methods to update the model parameters. The purpose of the prediction is to measure the vulnerability of growth in timely manner and to generate stress-test scenarios that account for global uncertainty explicitly.